Nothing Has Changed, Race Is Still Close

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The following guest post is from Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.

In recent days, it has been killing me to watch over-caffeinated journalists, bloggers and cable networks talk about the Presidential race tightening up. The bottom line: Obama has been pretty consistently in the lead by 2-4 points since March. The gap between Democrats and Republicans on generic presidential and congressional ballot tests has narrowed ever so slightly, but it's hard to imagine that Democrats could hold such leads as the campaign begins in earnest.

The media cycle is oh-so-predictable. One poll comes out with a wider margin than the average. The 'Excitables' then push the "Obama is pulling away" mantra, despite the fact that the poll was an outlier from most of the others. Then that same polling organization (the same ones often provide a disproportionate share of the outliers) will come out with a new poll, close to the average, and the new mantra is "Obama's lead is evaporating." Meanwhile, very little, if anything, has happened.

This race, in my opinion, has been close, is close and hasn't changed much. Republicans have firmed up a bit but that is to be expected. Obama still is underperforming in his party, a sign that should be worrisome to Democrats. But, again, that is not new.

If you see the Pollster.com trend estimates or the Real Clear Politics averages get to dead even and stay there for a few days, or Obama widen his lead to six for more than a few days, you know the race has changed. But until then, avoid over interpreting outlier polls.

Thu Aug 21, 2008

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