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Detroit Free Press: Obama Jumps to Lead in Michigan more similar news »
A new Detroit Free Press poll in Michigan gives Sen. Barack Obama a seven point lead over Sen. John McCain, 46% to 39%.
Key findings: "Obama has significantly more support among voters younger than 35
and an 11-point lead among women statewide. Among men, the two
candidates are virtually tied."
"Still, the numbers could move.
Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded
to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4."
Fri Aug 22, 2008 more from this source»»
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Biden Family Gathers in Delaware more similar news »
In anticipation of Sen. Barack Obama's announcement of a running mate, NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that one of Sen. Joe Biden's sons was flown in a private plane from Maine to the Senator's home in Delaware on Wednesday. Biden is "gathering the clan."
Another report said Biden has stopped talking to the media again.
Jonathan Alter thinks it's Biden "for some of the very reasons that were thought to disqualify Biden."
Fri Aug 22, 2008 more from this source»»
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Romney? more similar news »
Mark Halperin has two Republican sources who say Sen. John McCain will pick Mitt Romney as his running mate.
Update: He took down the report with no explanation.
Update II: Marc Ambinder reports there are "hints" of a major McCain rally being planned in Michigan "on or about 8/31."
Fri Aug 22, 2008 more from this source»»
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Obama to Highlight McCain's Houses more similar news »
Sen. Barack Obama's campaign, "moving rapidly to exploit what they see as a major opportunity, is deploying high-profile surrogates in 16 states across the country today to highlight John McCain's uncertainty yesterday about how many houses he owns," according to Politico.
"Governors, members of Congress and state legislators will hold conference calls and press conferences in front of homes to draw attention to the issue."
CNN quotes Obama today on the campaign trail: "Now think about that -- I guess if you think that being rich means you
gotta make five million dollars, and if you don't know how many houses
you have, then it's not surprising that you might think the economy is
fundamentally strong," he continued. "But if you're like me and you've
got one house -- or you were like the millions of people who are
struggling right now to keep up with their mortgage so that they don't
lose their home -- you might have a different perspective..."
The Obama campaign even put up a new ad on the topic.
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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Nothing Has Changed, Race Is Still Close more similar news »
The following guest post is from Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.
In recent days, it has been killing me to watch over-caffeinated journalists, bloggers and cable networks talk about the Presidential race tightening up. The bottom line: Obama has been pretty consistently in the lead by 2-4 points since March. The gap between Democrats and Republicans on generic presidential and congressional ballot tests has narrowed ever so slightly, but it's hard to imagine that Democrats could hold such leads as the campaign begins in earnest.
The media cycle is oh-so-predictable. One poll comes out with a wider margin than the average. The 'Excitables' then push the "Obama is pulling away" mantra, despite the fact that the poll was an outlier from most of the others. Then that same polling organization (the same ones often provide a disproportionate share of the outliers) will come out with a new poll, close to the average, and the new mantra is "Obama's lead is evaporating." Meanwhile, very little, if anything, has happened.
This race, in my opinion, has been close, is close and hasn't changed much. Republicans have firmed up a bit but that is to be expected. Obama still is underperforming in his party, a sign that should be worrisome to Democrats. But, again, that is not new.
If you see the Pollster.com trend estimates or the Real Clear Politics averages get to dead even and stay there for a few days, or Obama widen his lead to six for more than a few days, you know the race has changed. But until then, avoid over interpreting outlier polls.
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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MPR Poll: Obama Holds Double-Digit Lead in Minnesota more similar news »
A new Minnesota Public Radio poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 10 points, 48% to 38%.
However, the poll indicates the race is still very fluid and suggests McCain could close the gap, and possibly win in Minnesota, if he picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) as his running mate.
Key findings: "The results show deep disapproval of President Bush's job performance and a view that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Both of those factors are helping Obama and hurting McCain. Age appears to be a negative for McCain, and lack of experience is hurting Obama."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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NPR Poll: Obama, McCain Run Close in Battleground States more similar news »
A new NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 46% to 45%. President Bush won 14 of the 19 states surveyed in the 2004 presidential election.
Key findings: "Fifty-one percent of the likely voters surveyed thought Obama was too
risky, compared with 38% for McCain. The Arizona senator had an
advantage of 10 percentage points when it came to being seen as a
strong leader."
"But the campaign has also exposed weaknesses for McCain. Asked which
candidate is independent -- once his stock in trade -- 42% of
those surveyed said McCain, while 46% said Obama."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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Debates Finalized more similar news »
The Obama and McCain campaigns released a joint statement today noting their agreement on three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate. All four debates will begin at 9pm ET, and last for 90 minutes.
First Presidential Debate -- September 26 at the University of Mississippi
Topic: Foreign Policy & National Security
Moderator: Jim Lehrer
Staging: Podium debate
Answer Format: The debate will be broken into nine, 9-minute segments. The moderator will introduce a topic and allow each candidate 2 minutes to comment. After these initial answers, the moderator will facilitate an open discussion of the topic for the remaining 5 minutes, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment
Vice Presidential Debate -- October 2 at Washington University (St. Louis)
Moderator: Gwen Ifill
Staging/Answer Format: To be resolved after both parties' Vice Presidential nominees are selected.
Second Presidential Debate -- October 7 at Belmont University
Moderator: Tom Brokaw
Staging: Town Hall debate
Format: The moderator will call on members of the audience (and draw questions from the internet). Each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond to each question. Following those initial answers, the moderator will invite the candidates to respond to the previous answers, for a total of 1 minute, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment. In the spirit of the Town Hall, all questions will come from the audience (or internet), and not the moderator.
Third Presidential Debate -- October 15 at Hofstra University
Topic: Domestic and Economic policy
Moderator: Bob Schieffer
Staging: Candidates will be seated at a table
Answer Format: Same as First Presidential Debate
Closing Statements: At the end of this debate (only) each candidate shall have the opportunity for a 90 second closing statement.
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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McCain Will Not Pledge to Serve One Term more similar news »
Sen. John McCain "stated unequivocally" in an interview with Politico that he "would not pledge to serve only a single four-year term, rejecting a suggestion that some allies believe would allay questions about his age and underscore his non-partisan message of putting country first."
"There has been speculation that McCain, 71, could couple a single-term
promise with an untraditional running mate such as
Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) to make
the case that he would shove political interests aside and run a
consensus-oriented government with the Democratic-held Congress."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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Obama Drops Hints About Veep more similar news »
Despite saying he wouldn't talk about his running mate until he made his announcement, Sen. Barack Obama "offered some clues as to how he is approaching the decision, and... a sense that he had pretty much made up his mind."
Karen Tumulty speculates: "All that put together, if I were to guess who it would be based
strictly on what Obama himself has said, I would say the pick is either
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (low profile, both executive and foreign
policy experience, but a supporter of the Iraq War), or a surprise
whose name has not been circulating on the pundits' short lists."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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White House Still Missing Emails more similar news »
"The White House is missing as many as 225 days of e-mail dating back to
2003 and there is little if any likelihood a recovery effort will be
completed by the time the Bush administration leaves office," according
to an internal White House draft document obtained by the Associated
Press.
Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) criticized how the problem has been handled: "The
White House that wants to keep track of all your e-mail and phone
records can't even keep track of their own."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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What Late Veep Pick? more similar news »
The following guest post is from Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report.
I thought it odd last month when there was a flurry of talk about Senators Barack Obama and John McCain possibly announcing their running mates. Make a selection more than a month before the conventions, thereby eliminating the big reason for getting excited in late July and most of August? It seemed like a crazy idea to me.
Now, with the announcements near, some again are wondering why Obama and McCain have waited so long to announce their picks.
Let's be clear: Early picks are the exception, not "late picks." Most selections over the past 25 years have taken place the week before the conventions, so if Obama's and McCain's picks are "late," it's only because the conventions are late. Blame the International Olympic Committee, if you must.
1980 Bush (R) -- July 17, during the Convention (July 14-17)
1984 Ferraro (D) -- July 12, the week before the Convention (July 16-19)
1988 Quayle (R) -- Aug. 16, during the Convention (Aug. 15-18)
1988 Bentsen (D) -- July 12, the week before the Convention (July 18-21)
1992 Gore (D) -- July 9, the week before the Convention (July 13-16)
1996 Kemp (R) -- Aug. 10, two days before the Convention (Aug. 12-15)
2000 Lieberman (D) -- Aug. 7, the week before the Convention (Aug. 15-17)
2000 Cheney (R) -- July 25, the week before the Convention (July 31-Aug. 3)
2004 -- Edwards (D) -- July 6, three weeks before the Convention (July 26-29)
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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Congresswoman Dies more similar news »
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) died Wednesday after suffering an aneurysm, according to officials at the hospital where she was being treated, CQ Politics reports.
Tubbs Jones represented OH-11 since 1999 and was chairwoman of the House's
ethics committee. She was 58.
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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WSJ/NBC Poll: McCain is Negative But It's Working more similar news »
By a nearly six-to-one margin, voters say Sen. John McCain is running a negative campaign against Sen. Barack Obama, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
"Nearly three in 10 voters, 29%, pointed to McCain as the candidate
running a negative campaign, compared to just 5% who said Obama is
running a negative campaign. McCain's 29% rating is the highest of any
one candidate in the previous two presidential elections."
In a head-to-head matchup, Obama now leads McCain by just three points, 45% to 42%, down from six points just a month ago.
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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NYT/CBS Poll: More Proof McCain Attacks are Working more similar news »
Sen. John McCain has cut Sen. Barack Obama's nationwide lead in half, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll. Obama is now ahead by three points, 45% to 42%, down from six points two weeks ago.
Key finding: "A majority of voters say McCain is spending more time attacking Obama
than explaining what he would do as president. Obama, by better than
two to one, is viewed as running a positive campaign."
Thu Aug 21, 2008 more from this source»»
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Obama Advance Teams Sent to Indiana more similar news »
The Nashville Post "has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama
Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations
around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a 'major
event' to take place on Saturday."
"Saturday is the same day that
Obama is expected to make his first public appearance with his yet to
be announced vice presidential running mate. Indiana is the home state
of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, widely considered to be on the short
list of Democratic vice presidential contenders."
Of course, Obama plans a tour of battleground states with his running mate and Indiana may simply be a stop on that tour.
Update: An Obama aide tells the Washington Post "unequivocally that the report of a planned Indiana trip is untrue."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Americans Seek a New Patriotism more similar news »
A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll finds that more Americans rate Sen. John McCain as patriotic (74%) than
Sen. Barack Obama, (56%).
However, when Obama "frames his idea of patriotism in
terms that call on America to live up to its ideals and promise,
respondents prefer his patriotism-centered argument over McCain's more
traditional patriotic framing by 11 points."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Cronkite-Eight Poll: McCain Leads By 10 in Arizona more similar news »
The latest Cronkite-Eight poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by ten points, 40% to 30%.
The Obama campaign notes McCain has not been able to crack 40% support in his home state.
Said pollster Tara Blanc: "Obama will most likely benefit from a higher turnout. Whether that's enough for him to win Arizona, probably not. But it
could impact the percent by which McCain would carry Arizona."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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GWU Poll: Obama Loses National Lead more similar news »
The new GWU Battleground poll shows Sen. John McCain just edging Sen. Barack Obama, 40% to 39%.
Democratic analysis: "For most of the summer, these dynamics combined to afford Obama a narrow, though consistent lead. At this point in the contest, however, after a continued and largely unanswered negative campaign on the part of McCain, the race is a statistical dead heat (47% for McCain to 46% for Obama). Underneath the more modest movement in the overall vote from our last poll, however, is a larger shift among independents that is of particular concern for Obama. In May, Obama led among independents by 14 points; today, McCain is winning these voters by 10 points."
Republican analysis: "The 2008 presidential campaign is far from over. As this survey reveals, of the 13 attributes tested between the two candidates, John McCain enjoys an advantage on half of them. Indeed, McCain has seen improvement on every comparative attribute repeated in this study save one - and it is the one in which McCain enjoys his most commanding lead (the war in Iraq). This positive re-evaluation of John McCain (in comparison to Barack Obama) is the untold story of the last three months of this election."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Hawkeye Poll: Obama Leads in Iowa more similar news »
A new Iowa Hawkeye poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain among likely voters, 50% to 43%.
Said pollster David Redlawsk: "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in
Obama's direction. Most importantly
for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly
support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election
Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in
the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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PPP Poll: McCain Expands Lead in Missouri more similar news »
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Missouri shows Sen. John McCain with a ten point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 50% to 40%.
McCain had a three point lead last month.
Key findings: "The key to McCain's rise is nearly doubling his lead among white
voters. He now has a 56-35 advantage with them, up from 50-39 in July.
Obama is still dominating among black voters but it's nearly impossible
for him to win in Missouri without keeping his deficit with whites in
single digits."
Furthermore, McCain "is doing a better job of keeping voters
in his party with him than Obama is. He is up 87-9 among Republicans
while Obama has a smaller 78-15 lead with Democrats."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Rasmussen: McCain Keeps Lead in Ohio more similar news »
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Ohio shows Sen. John McCain ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 43%.
Key finding: "The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that
51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive
Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable
opinion, up six percent from a month ago."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Behind McCain's Pro-Choice Veep Bluff more similar news »
John Heilemann thinks he knows why Sen. John McCain's campaign floated the idea he might choose a pro-choice running mate.
"Well, what if McCain were planning to name a running mate who, despite being pro-life, the religious right has some qualms about? What if that putative V.P., indeed, had lately been criticized by another erstwhile GOP presidential runner -- a Baptist minister, no less -- for his shifting stances on social issues, stirring up a rearguard action among some Christianists to block him? Isn't it possible that McCain and his people are engaged in a bit of elaborate gamesmanship designed to make Evangelicals more grateful than they otherwise might be for the selection of that guy?"
"The heart doth sink and the mind doth reel, but I do believe what we are looking at here is the start of the Romney Rollout."
Mark Halperin essentially says the same thing.
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Obama's Veep Timing more similar news »
I'd still keep checking your email for the official announcement, but Howard Fineman has this: "One of the contenders also revealed a tidbit about timing. That person
says Obama's camp wants to know how to get in touch on Thursday
afternoon."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Lummis Wins Wyoming Congressional Primary more similar news »
Former Wyoming state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R) won the Republican nomination for Wyoming's open at-large House seat, "despite being outspent by more than a four-to-one ratio by the runner-up," Mark Gordon (R), according to CQ Politics.
Lummis is the favorite to win the seat being vacated by Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY).
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Did Obama Slip? more similar news »
Sen. Barack Obama "is almost always diligent about saying 'he or she' when discussing his potential running mate," Jake Tapper notes.
"But at a lively town hall meeting in the Tarheel State Tuesday evening, the senator -- who is expected to announce his vice presidential pick at the end of this week -- used a decidedly male pronoun."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Civitas Poll: McCain Ahead in North Carolina more similar news »
A new Civitas Poll in North Carolina shows Sen. John McCain with a 6 point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 46% to 40%.
Said pollster Francis DeLuca: "This month we've seen McCain reverse the tightening trend over the last
few months and expand his lead over Obama by garnering a larger share
of unaffiliated voters... While Obama and his campaign have talked about North Carolina being in
play, the numbers do not seem to be indicating that is happening on the
ground despite an unprecedented effort. According to our polling, Obama
seems to be stuck at 40 percent support."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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Susquehana Poll: Obama Ahead in Pennsylvania more similar news »
A new Susquehanna poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Sen. John McCain, 46% to 41%, with another 10% still undecided.
Key finding: "Both McCain and Obama have virtually the same ratios in hard name ID and are liked nearly equally by the voters. For Obama, he is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion; 22% have no opinion of him. For McCain, 44% view him favorably, compared to 34% who view him unfavorably and 22% who have no opinion. This again reflects the closeness of the race since neither candidate has succeeded in developing a positive image that is head-and-shoulders above the other."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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SurveyUSA: McCain Leads in Indiana more similar news »
A new SurveyUSA poll in Indiana finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by six points, 50% to 44%. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3
points; McCain is up 3.
Key findings: "Among those who regularly attend religious
services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago.
Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who
rarely attend, Obama leads by 23."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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LAT/Bloomberg Poll: Presidential Race Tightens more similar news »
The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows the presidential race remains tight, with Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 45% to 43%.
"More striking than the head-to-head matchup, however, is the drop in Obama's favorable rating" which "has sunk to 48% from 59%" since the poll in June.
"At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%."
Key findings: "Most voters say they know at least some people who feel uneasy about electing a black president; 17% say the country is not ready to do so."
However, "the poll found that McCain faces serious obstacles. Voters favor Obama on the economy, the issue they rank as most important. McCain's supporters remain less enthusiastic than those of his rival. And independents, a crucial swing bloc, are leaning toward Obama."
Wed Aug 20, 2008 more from this source»»
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