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R2000: North Dakota is a Battleground State   more similar news »
A new Research 2000 poll in North Dakota shows that Sen. John McCain barely edges Sen. Barack Obama, 45% to 42%.

With a four point margin of error, the race is a statistical dead heat.

A Rasmussen survey two weeks ago also had the race tied at 43%.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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R2000: McCain Leads by Just Nine Points in Mississippi   more similar news »
A new Research 2000 poll in Mississippi shows Sen. John McCain's lead over Sen. Barack Obama is in single digits, 51% to 42%.

Key finding: Obama receives 19% of the white vote. In theory, a large turnout of African American voters could help make this state competitive.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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McCain Keeps 'Em Guessing   more similar news »
In yet another change of plans for Sen. John McCain, NBC News reports that former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) will be joining the Arizona senator tonight in Columbus, Ohio.

Is this the surprise?

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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McAuliffe Backs Kaine for Veep   more similar news »
Terry McAuliffe, who chaired Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, told Democratic activists in Virginia that Gov. Tim Kaine "would be his party's best choice as Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate," according to the Falls Church News-Press.

"McAuliffe was adamant in his recommendation of Kaine... the fact that he proposed Kaine over his own candidate and long-time friend, Hillary Clinton, suggested that he knows the Clinton option is off the table."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Fox News: Presidential Race Remains Very Tight   more similar news »
According to the latest Fox News poll, Sen. Barack Obama barely edges Sen. John McCain among registered voters, 41% to 40%.

However, when asked which candidate will ultimately win in November, 51% say Obama, 27% say McCain while 22% are still unsure.

Stunning finding: 10% believe Obama is a Muslim while another 27% are unsure.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Hispanics Back Obama Overwhelmingly   more similar news »
Hispanic voters support Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a Pew Research survey.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Quinnipiac: McCain Gains in Key Battleground States   more similar news »
Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac polls of likely voters in these battleground states.

In Colorado, McCain leads 46% to 44%.In Michigan, Obama leads 46% to 42%.In Minnesota, Obama leads 46% to 44%. In Wisconsin, Obama leads 50% to 39%. Most interesting finding: "Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Not a Toss Up   more similar news »
The Crystal Ball: "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed -- historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months -- point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Obama Begins to Plan Transition   more similar news »
Sen. Barack Obama has directed his aides to begin planning for the transition, reports Marc Ambinder. It's standard procedure for all presidential campaigns to begin this process early since there are less than three months between the election in November and the inauguration in Janurary.

An aide confirms that former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Podesta "will probably be asked to head the transition team, which would take over from the campaign if Obama wins in November, and would be tasked with ensuring a smooth handover of power."

Paul Light: "The arguments for detailed and publicly acknowledged pre-convention transition planning are overwhelming. This is a situation in which the plane cannot be built while flying it."

I hope someone sends them a copy of my book, You Won - Now What?

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Obama Raising Big Money in McCain's Home State   more similar news »
Sen. Barack Obama "quietly raised more money in Arizona last month for his presidential campaign than" Sen. John McCain did, according to analysis by the Arizona Republic.

Obama reported $432,000 in donations from Arizonans in June, compared with McCain's $313,000... Since last year, McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, has raised at least $4.7 million from his fellow Arizonans, double what Obama reports from the state. But donations this year are nearly even: McCain's Arizona donors have given him $2 million. Obama's Arizona donors have given him just $66,000 less."

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes that "a variety of factors have made Mr. McCain's chances in Arizona less assured than they ordinarily would seem."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Republicans Losing New Media War   more similar news »
Politico notes that as the 2008 campaign progresses, "it's becoming increasingly clear that the absence of any websites on the right devoted to reporting -- as opposed to just commenting on the news -- is proving politically costly to Republicans."

"While conservatives are devoting much of their Internet energy to analysis, their counterparts on the left are taking advantage of the rise of new media to create new institutions devoted to unearthing stories, putting new information into circulation and generally crowding the space traditionally taken by traditional media. And it almost always comes at the expense of GOP politicians.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Is McCain Planning a Surprise Announcement?   more similar news »
Political Insider: There are indications the McCain campaign has something planned for Thursday.

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Obama Will Run Ads During Olympics   more similar news »
We noted it a month ago and now it's confirmed by Advertising Age:

"Sen. Barack Obama's campaign will be among the TV sponsors of NBC Universal's Olympics coverage. In the first significant network-TV buy of any presidential candidate in at least 16 years, the Obama campaign has taken a $5 million package of Olympics spots that includes network TV as well as cable ads."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Maintains National Lead   more similar news »
Sen. Barack Obama remains ahead of rival Sen. John McCain in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with a six-point advantage, 47% to 41%.

Obama's lead is exactly the same as it was a month ago in the June poll.

"As for the electorate, the outlook is overwhelmingly pessimistic. More Americans believe the country is on the wrong track that at any other point in the nearly 20-year history of the poll, with just 13% saying the country is headed in the right direction, while 74% said the country is on the wrong track. The previous low point was a 14% right-track rating in July 1992."

Thu Jul 24, 2008
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Economy Remains Biggest Issue   more similar news »
A new AP/Ipsos poll finds 44% of Americans think the economy is the country's most important problem, while 22% cite energy costs and 15% pick the Iraq war.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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McCain Plans Trip to Oil Rig   more similar news »
We now know why Lousiana Gov. Bobby Jindal doesn't know anything about Sen. John McCain's visit to his state tomorrow. According to Jonathan Martin, McCain is planning to visit an off-shore oil rig, not to see Jindal about being his running mate.

"Weather permitting, McCain will helicopter from Louisiana to an oil rig in the Gulf Coast to make the case for expanded off-shore drilling... The GOP nominee will be joined by a small press pool of reporters and photographers on a trek sure to offer memorable images. Because of space constraints, Louisiana Gov. and veep prospect Bobby Jindal will not make the trip."

Aides hope the trip will steal some attention away from Sen. Barack Obama's big speech in Berlin on Thursday.

Update: McCain can't catch a break this week. The event has been canceled due to the weather.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Granite State Poll: New Hampshire Senate Race Tight   more similar news »
Even though some see Jeanne Shaheen (D) with the edge in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race, a new Granite State Poll shows "her once comfortable lead over incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) shrink in recent months."

Shaheen currently leads 46% to 42% with 10% undecided. Sununu was behind 17% in February and 12% in April.

Key finding: "This race is very much up in the air as 22% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 6% are leaning toward one of the candidates, and 72% are still trying to decide who to support."

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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PPP Poll: Virginia Remains Very Competitive   more similar news »
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia finds Sen. Barack Obama inching ahead of Sen. John McCain, 46% to 44%.

Key findings: "The contest in Virginia breaks out pretty much as one would expect. Obama has large leads among black voters (77-16) and other non-white voters (50-31) while leading in three out of four age categories. McCain's strength comes from white voters (53-36) and those over 65 (49-38)."

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Obama Backed By Many British Conservatives   more similar news »
The Telegraph has more good news for Sen. Barack Obama before he gets to London: "Almost a third of Tory MPs willing to publicly express their preferences in the US presidential election are prepared to jettison their party's historic links with the Republicans and back Obama."

Political Insider: Important poll coming later today.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Inside Obama's Online War Room   more similar news »
"By almost any measure, the Obama campaign's online activities have been a roaring success," says the New York Observer.

"The campaign has taken the Internet technology pioneered by Howard Dean in 2004, expanded on it and built what is in essence a multimedia company capable of competing with the traditional press in communicating with potential supporters. And that audience, in turn, has responded with hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions, thousands and thousands of volunteer hours, and instant, on-demand outrage directed at media outlets whose coverage is deemed unfair to the candidate."

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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McCain Drops Hints About Pawlenty   more similar news »
A Republican source who attended a small private meeting with John McCain yesterday in New Hampshire tells CNN that "the GOP candidate dropped a serious hint about Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty" becoming his running mate.

The source said "out of the blue" McCain told the gathering that he thinks they are "really going to like" Pawlenty.

"This GOP source noted that McCain also said nice things about Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, but those appeared to be standard lines he says about former rivals."

CQ Politics: Four principles for picking a vice president.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Shaheen Has Edge in New Hampshire   more similar news »
Sen. John Sununu's (R-NH) "re-election strategy of having a not-so-public campaign, sitting tight and stockpiling significant funds is not working -- at least at the moment," reports CQ Politics. "Polls show his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, with a consistent double-digit advantage."

As a results, CQ is changing its rating of the race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democrat to reflect Sununu's current position as he seeks a second term.

One caveat: Sununu is sitting on a campaign war chest of more than $5 million and has yet to run any advertising.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Monmouth Poll: No Worries for Obama in New Jersey   more similar news »
A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 14 points, 42% to 28%.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Mixed Signals on McCain Trip to Lousiana   more similar news »
"Mystery continues to surround" Sen. John McCain's "plans to interrupt a tour of battleground states today for a visit to New Orleans and a meeting with Gov. Bobby Jindal," the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.

"Campaign officials confirm that McCain will fly to New Orleans tonight but declined to give any more details about the visit. The trip attracted even more attention after a nationally syndicated columnist reported that McCain planned to name his running mate this week, sparking speculation that Jindal is a finalist."

Meanwhile, on morning television, Jindal said he didn't even know if McCain was coming to his state. He also said he wasn't going to be chosen as McCain's running mate.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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Rasmussen: Colorado Remains Very Tight   more similar news »
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama just edging Sen. John McCain, 50% to 47%.

Colorado has gone Republican in the last three presidential races but Obama has targeted it heavily this year.

Wed Jul 23, 2008
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